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First with Raye, guns and friends

Everything can have purpose if you allow it.

Author

Micael Balioni
January 09, 2025

Good morning, Upper East Siders.

How were your holidays? I hope you got some well-deserved rest because something tells me this year is going to be wild. I wish you had an absolute blast, recharged your batteries, and are ready to dive into everything 2025 has in store.

I also wanted to take a little moment in this edition to congratulate Fernanda Torres, the first Brazilian actress in history to win a Golden Globe, in the category of Best Actress in a Drama Film. The achievement comes 25 years after his mother, Fernanda Montenegro, was nominated in the same category for her role in Central Station, but failed to win the award. This time, we. brought. it. home.

Now, let’s get this party started.

THE MUSTS

World

Rum-pum-pum-pum

 New compulsory curriculum in Polish schools

 Math, history and... shooting? In Poland, gun handling lessons have become compulsory in all schools for pupils from the age of 13.

  • In response to the war in Ukraine, Poland decided to include weapons training in the school curriculum - not real ammunition, but laser simulations.

Why is this relevant? The measure indicates the government's concern that having future generations prepared from an early age to defend the country is essential. In practice, the truth is that, with the scenario of growing tension in Eastern Europe, especially with Russian threats, Poland is preparing for the worst.

  • The idea is to ensure that young people - aged between 13 and 14 - in all of the country's 18,000 schools already feel ready to act in a possible war situation.

The students are practicing shooting with rifles and pistols. Overall, the reception among the youngsters has been positive, with many of them proud to “defend their homeland” and feeling better prepared for the future. Watch a video of them shooting here.

Zoom out: Investment in security in the country isn't just within the classroom. In 2023, Poland led Europe with a 75% increase in its military spending, amounting to $31.6 billion.

Now I want to know from you: What do you think? Necessary or kinda scary? Maybe both…

What else in on

  • Great Britain: Britain officially became the 12th member of a transpacific trade pact that includes Japan, Australia and Canada, seeking to deepen partnerships in the region and build its global trade ties after leaving the European Union. (Read)

  • Canada: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is resigning after more than nine years leading Canada, bowing to sagging approval numbers and a rebellion within his own party.  (Read)

  • Tibet: A devastating earthquake killed at least 126 in Tibet. A 7.1-magnitude quake struck the Tibet region in western China near the border of Nepal, rocking the holy city of Shigatse and destroying villages in the remote area. (Read)

  • Brazil: Brazil’s currency is having its worst meltdown ever. The Real has plunged to historic lows against the USD as investors flee over concerns about the country’s massive 10% budget deficit, which has doubled since President Lula took office last year. With political disagreements over the path forward, even juicy 15% bond yields (and delicious caipirinhas) aren’t enough to convince investors to stick around. (Read)

 

Economy & Business

let’s do predictions

What Are the Expectation of Wall Street For 2025

The world has officially say goodbye to 2024 — a year filled with highs, lows, and everything in between. The Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Bitcoin rose 27%, 24%, and 120%, respectively, making 2024 an all-timer for the markets. But now, the focus shifts to what’s ahead.

Predictions galore: Wall Street analysts initially forecasted a modest 6.2% gain for the S&P 500 in 2023 — instead, the index soared to more than four times that, capping off the year near all-time highs. For 2024, the consensus outlook was a 3% increase, but the benchmark is ending the year up 24%. In fact, none of America’s major financial institutions came close to estimating the index’s stunning performance or the market’s surprising optimism post-Election Day. But with fresh insights, they’re hoping to capture investors’ upbeat views in their 2025 forecasts.

  • According to the NYT, analysts expect the S&P 500 to march 9.6% this year — with Oppenheimer offering the most bullish estimate, predicting the S&P 500 will hit 7.1K by year-end.

  • On the other hand, Stifel offers the most cautious view, vaguely forecasting a mid–5K target — one of just 19 strategists tracked by Bloomberg auguring a decline.

Much of investors’ enthusiasm stems from high expectations for S&P 500 earnings in 2025, which are anticipated to grow even faster than in 2024. FactSet reports analysts predict 14.8% earnings growth, nearly double the 10-year average. While this helps explain the market’s rich valuation, it might also be at odds with anxious investors.

  • In 2024, the index’s top ten stocks accounted for more than half its returns — including Nvidia ($NVDA), Broadcom ($AVGO), and Tesla ($TSLA), which rose 177%, 116%, and 73%, respectively.

  • It was also only the fourth time in 100 years that the index delivered back-to-back annual returns of 20% — making a repeat performance unprecedented.

But what’s working against the market, Micael? With worries about tariff talk, stretched valuations, and slower market growth, businesses will have to be on their best behavior. Research from Apollo highlights that these themes, along with inflated projections for high-flyers like Nvidia, are likely to be the talk of the town this year. Furthermore, an Axios survey reveals lingering anxiety among Americans over softer growth and stubborn inflation. Do you have any preditions?

What else is on:

  • Hey Siri. Apple agreed to pay $95 million to settle a lawsuit claiming Siri eavesdropped on iPhone users even if they never uttered the phrase “Hey, Siri.” I mean… if the idea is for it to answer after you say “Hey Siri…” it kind of needs to be listening all the time, no? (Read)

  • Don’t I deserve a bit as well? The world’s 500 richest billionaires surpassed 10 trillion in wealth in 2024. US technology stocks played a key role in turbocharging the record, with the eight biggest tech titans alone gaining more than US$600 billion this year. (Read)

  • What an investment. When Facebook bought Instagram for $1 billion in 2012, the photo app not only had no revenue, but had accumulated a loss of $2.7 million. Twelve years on and the app will account for more than half of Meta's advertising revenue by next year. (Read)

 

Technology & Science

I’m still not over 2024

The year of innovation

After the long list of good things that happened last year published in the last edition, there was still one thing missing that I consider very important. Our future is being designed today and we need to understand what is happening at the cutting edge of technology.

While AI continues to be the main character in the innovation conversation (and a magnet for VC cash), the honeymoon of everyone asking ChatGPT to write clever poems is over. But progress never sleeps (just like Tanamesa’s editor), and plenty of funky gadgets, novel medical treatments, and concepts devised by people with PhDs in abstract subjects burst onto the scene last year.

Inventions and innovations

Whether it’s a computer you wear on your face or a more sustainable material for clothes, these products are expanding humanity’s toolkit:

Science and tech milestones

These might not be hot new items you can snag at Best Buy, but it is the scientific know-how pushing human progress forward:

Companies pushing the envelope

It’s not just the OpenAIs, SpaceXs, and Waymos of the world pushing the envelope with new ideas—but also upstarts that are staying out of the spotlight and some legacy industry giants.

Just in case you were wondering…

What else is on:

  • Space talk. European Union doesn't want to be held hostage by Musk's companies and is investing €10.6 billion to create its own satellite constellation. The idea is to use these satellites for communication and rent out their space. (Read)

  • New treatment uses sound and water to treat cancer. Using ultrasound sound waves, the idea is to destroys tumors non-invasively, with less impact on healthy tissue and fewer side effects, creating bubbles in tissues affected by cancer. (Read)

  • Huge. Developers at Google have managed to create a quantum chip - Willow - that takes less than 5 minutes to complete a problem that would take the world's current fastest supercomputer 10 septillion years to solve. Delve into this quick video if you like. (Read)

     

     

EDITOR’S RECOMMENDATIONS

Music

to the Bentley, to the hotel, to my old ways

 My 21st Century Blues by RAYE: To start the "Editor's Recommendations" of the year, I’m excited to feature an album introduced to me by a coworker. If you think you haven't heard of RAYE, you’ve likely heard her music. Her hit "Prada" with Casso and collaborations with David Guetta are just a few examples.

After years of contributing her songwriting talents to artists like Charli XCX, Little Mix, and Beyoncé, RAYE finally broke free from a restrictive record deal (as they usually are) to release her debut album independently. My 21st Century Blues** is a bold DIY debut, blending house, pop, blues, and dancehall, and serves as a defiant response to an unequal industry**.

RAYE sets a new standard here, with a sound that is both familiar and refreshingly unique. The album showcases RAYE's influences, from her jazz roots to her training at the BRIT School, which also nurtured talents like Amy Winehouse and Adele.

  • I was particularly impressed by tracks like "Escapism," featuring 070 Shake, which became RAYE's first UK No. 1, and "Black Mascara," which completely flips the script on traditional dance music. These songs, along with others like "The Thrill Is Gone" and "Ice Cream Man" balance catchy hooks with profound, hard-hitting lyrics.

RAYE's powerhouse vocals and striking lyrics challenge listeners to engage with themes of resilience and self-discovery. This debut album is remarkably strong and well-produced, leaving me eager to see what RAYE will create next. I didn't know this girl before, but when you are this caliber, you’ll eventually become an icon.

For those who like: Tate McRae, SZA, Chappel Roan, FLO, Kehlani. (Rating: 9/10)

 

WHAT ABOUT ME?

Micael

C sem pigliat pell!

 

Hi there,

Many of you know by now (at least, I hope so!) that I was born and raised in São Paulo. But what you might not know is that my mother’s family comes from Rondônia, a state in northern Brazil, near the Amazon. They live in a small town about six hours from the state capital. Growing up, this was always a point of humor with my São Paulo friends—the idea that there was this “interior” side to me, tied to a rural, quieter life.

  • I didn’t visit often—the last time I was there was in 2017—but every time I did, it felt like home. Maybe it’s because of my mom, or my family, or maybe because it's easy for me to feel at home wherever there’s good food on the table.

Fast forward to my life here in Italy. Whenever someone asks where I live, my answer is always Milan—the Italian São Paulo (according to multiple sources of data). But here’s the thing: just as I have Rondônia in Brazil, I’ve found my Italian version of it, and that’s Molise — the topic of today’s “What About Me.”

Molise is a small region in southern Italy, with just 288,000 inhabitants. It’s rural, off the beaten path, and even carries the running joke of “not existing” because so few people know about it. It’s also Italy’s youngest region, officially established only in 1964.

One of my closest Italian friends is from Molise (you might have heard me complaining about him at some point of my life), which is how I ended up spending New Year’s there this year with a group of friends. This was my third visit—coincidentally the same number of times I’ve been to Rondônia—and each time I go, I fall in love with it a little more. Honestly, I can’t understand why people don’t visit more often (although I’m not complaining) - Maybe Molise’s biggest flex is the fact that people don’t realize what they’re missing.

  • When I was younger, I could never understand why someone would choose to live anywhere but a big city. If you’re ambitious, determined, and want to make it in the world, isn’t it obvious that you should be where everything happens? Why limit yourself to the “small opportunities” of a small town?

But growing up—especially these past few years in Italy—I’ve started to see things differently. I’ve learned to appreciate quality: the quality of the air you breathe, the food you eat, the water you drink, the company you keep. I’ve started to wonder if rushing from one trendy restaurant to the next, always caught in the city’s relentless pace, is really as fulfilling as I once thought. And those “small opportunities”? They’re only small if you can’t see the bigger picture. As we say in Brazil, “In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king.”

Molise has become that kind of place for me. It’s where I’ve made some of my best memories in Italy. It’s where I’ve seen the most breathtaking skies, danced at a village-wide party in a tiny borgo, and visited stunning waterfalls. It’s close to the sea, close to the mountains, and, in my opinion, an incredible place to grow old.

Maybe it’s my friend’s family, who is the closest I’ve been to a family since I’ve been here. Or maybe it’s how much Molise reminds me of Rondônia, with its quiet charm and slower pace. Either way, this little region is starting to carve out a big place in me, and I cannot wait to return.

With love,

Micael.

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